Browsing by Author "AMAROUCHE, KHALID"
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Publication Creating an artificial neural network time series model for the prediction of daily solar radiation in oran(Desalination Publ, 2022-04-01) Soukeur, El Hussein Iz El Islam; Chaabane, Djamal; Amarouche, Khalid; Bachari, Nour El Islam; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; Khalid Amarouche; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0001-7983-4611; AFR-7886-2022Water and clean energies are currently a major scientific and political concern. The use of numerical prediction is often recommended in these areas, for optimal exploitation of renewable energy resources, mainly for seawater desalination and other energy and food security activities. In this study, we present an application of artificial neural networks (ANN), developed for daily solar energy forecasting. The ANN model developed is based on the multi-layer perceptron, the most widely used ANN type in renewable energy and time series forecasting. The developed model has two main properties: I. The ANN training is based on long-term reanalysis data, allowing the model to be trained even in areas where no radiation measurements are available, as is the case for marine areas and in the new desalination plants. II. The model allows automatic selection of the optimal ANN model architecture based on the training data. A thirty-nine-year time series of reanalysis data between 1980 and 2018 was used for training and model implementation. Thus, the model accuracy was evaluated based on one-year data (2019). The obtained error analysis results show that the developed model has a good performance in line with previous studies. The developed ANN models are characterized by reasonable daily prediction accuracy, with a root mean square error of 3.248 MJ/(m2 d) for solar radiation prediction. This verifies the accuracy and ability of the model to predict solar radiation to ensure optimal management of solar energy farms.Publication New wind-wave climate records in the Western Mediterranean Sea(Springer, 2021-11-03) Amarouche, Khalıd; Bingölbalı, Bilal; Akpınar, Adem; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; BİNGÖLBALİ, BİLAL; AKPINAR, ADEM; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü; 0000-0001-7983-4611; 0000-0002-9042-6851; AFR-7886-2022; AAB-4152-2020; AAC-6763-2019This study presents a detailed analysis of changes in wind and wave climate in the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMed), based on 41 years of accurate wind and wave hindcasts. The purpose of this research is to assess the magnitude of recent changes in wave climate and to locate the coastal areas most affected by these changes. Starting from the Theil-Sen slope estimator and the Mann Kendall test, trends in mean and Max significant wave heights (SWH) and wind speed (WS) are analysed simultaneously on seasonal and annual scales. Thus, the new wave records observed since 2010 have been located spatially and temporally using a simple spatial analysis method, while the increases in maximum wave heights over the last decade have been estimated and mapped. This work was motivated by evidence pointed out by several authors concerning the influence of global climate change on the local climate in the Mediterranean Sea and by the increase in the number and intensity of wave storm events over recent years. Several exceptional storms have recently been observed along the Mediterranean coasts, including storm Adrian in 2018 and storm Gloria in 2020, which resulted in enormous damage along the French and Spanish coasts. The results of the present study reflect a worrying situation in large part of the WMed coasts. Most of the WMed basin experiences a significant increasing trend in the annual Max of SWH and WS with evident inter-seasonal variability that underlines the importance of multi-scale analysis to assess wind and wave trends. Since 2013, about half of the WMed coastline has experienced records in wave climate, not recorded at least since 1979, and several areas have experienced three successive records. Several WMed coasts are experiencing a worrying evolution of the wave climate, which requires a serious mobilisation to prevent probable catastrophic wave storms and ensure sustainable and economic development.Publication Wave power trends over the mediterranean sea based on innovative methods and 60-year ERA5 reanalysis(Mdpi, 2023-05-22) Acar, Emine; Akpınar, Adem; Kankal, Murat; Amarouche, Khalid; Acar, Emine; AKPINAR, ADEM; KANKAL, MURAT; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0002-9042-6851; 0000-0003-0897-4742; 0000-0001-7983-4611; AAZ-6851-2020; AAC-6763-2019; ABG-2101-2020; JTU-9268-2023; AFR-7886-2022The present study aims to evaluate long-term wave power (P-wave) trends over the Mediterranean Sea using innovative and classical trend analysis techniques, considering the annual and seasonal means. For this purpose, the data were selected for the ERA5 reanalysis with 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees spatial resolution and 1 h temporal resolution during 60 years between 1962 and 2021. Spatial assessment of the annual and seasonal trends was first performed using the innovative trend analysis (ITA) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. To obtain more detailed information, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), improved visualization of innovative trend analysis (IV-ITA), and star graph methods were applied to annual, seasonal, and monthly mean Pwave at 12 stations selected. The results allow us to identify an increasing trend above the 10% change rate with the innovative method and above the 95% confidence level with the Mann-Kendall test in mean wave power in the Levantine basin and the Libyan Sea at all timescales. The use of various innovative methods offered similar results in certain respects and complemented each other.