Person: KANKAL, MURAT
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KANKAL
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MURAT
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Publication Analysis of the precipitation intensity values of various durations in Trabzon province of Turkey by sen's innovative trend method(Yildiz Technical Univ, 2019-03-01) Terzioğlu, Zeynep Özge; Yüksek, Ömer; Nemli, Murat Özer; KANKAL, MURAT; Akçay, Fatma; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0003-0897-4742; AAZ-6851-2020Hydrological and meteorological studies indicate that hydrological processes and water resources are significantly affected by the climate change, particularly with increasing greenhouse gases and temperature. In this study, the trend analyses of the biggest precipitation intensity values in Trabzon, the most populous province of the Eastern Black Sea Basin in Turkey, have been carried out by using Mann-Kendall and Sen's Innovative Trend methods. In line with this purpose; the precipitation intensity data of standard time series from 5 minutes to 24 hours for two meteorological stations in Trabzon (Trabzon and Akcaabat) were used. Before carrying out trend analyses, the Run (Swed Eisenhart) Homogeneity Test was applied to all data and non-homogeneous data were not analysed. Before applying the Mann-Kendall Method, the internal dependency of the data was examined. When the analysis results are reviewed; in Trabzon Meteorology Station an increasing trend for intensities of all-time series has been detected, whereas in the Akcaabat Meteorology Station, a general result of the trend could not be obtained as most the data related to different time series were not homogeneous data.Publication Trend analysis of maximum rainfall series of standard durations in Turkey with innovative methods(Springer, 2023-09-11) Touhedi, Hidayatullah; Kankal, Murat; Yıldız, Mehmet Berkant; Touhedi, Hidayatullah; KANKAL, MURAT; Yıldız, Mehmet Berkant; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0003-0897-4742; 0000-0001-6134-9220; JJL-6056-2023; AAZ-6851-2020; JFH-7236-2023Information about temperature and rainfall, the main elements of the Earth's climate, is essential in determining the characteristics of world climate variations. The changes in these two parameters, which show significant variability in both spatial and temporal scales, reveal essential clues for understanding the general structure of the climate. This study aims to investigate the effect of climate change on the annual maximum (extreme) rainfall values observed in Turkey. In this context, trend analyses were performed using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, innovative trend analysis (ITA), and improved visualization of ITA (IV-ITA) methods to the standard durations (t = 5, 10, 15, 30 min, and 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24 h) of the annual maximum rainfalls of 82 stations located in seven geographical regions of Turkey between 1975 and 2015. Trends for low and high maximum rainfall values were determined with IV-ITA. According to the MK test, there was an increasing trend of 15% in all stations, while only a decreasing trend of 1% was detected. Besides, the ITA method determined these values as 63% and 17%, respectively. The trends for low and high category values in the IV-ITA method are consistent, with approximately 60% increasing and 20% decreasing trends. An increasing trend is dominant throughout Turkey, and this trend is concentrated in the Black Sea, Marmara, and Aegean regions. Medium- and long-duration rainfall tended to increase, while short-duration rainfall tended to decrease.Publication Wave power trends over the mediterranean sea based on innovative methods and 60-year ERA5 reanalysis(Mdpi, 2023-05-22) Acar, Emine; Akpınar, Adem; Kankal, Murat; Amarouche, Khalid; Acar, Emine; AKPINAR, ADEM; KANKAL, MURAT; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0002-9042-6851; 0000-0003-0897-4742; 0000-0001-7983-4611; AAZ-6851-2020; AAC-6763-2019; ABG-2101-2020; JTU-9268-2023; AFR-7886-2022The present study aims to evaluate long-term wave power (P-wave) trends over the Mediterranean Sea using innovative and classical trend analysis techniques, considering the annual and seasonal means. For this purpose, the data were selected for the ERA5 reanalysis with 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees spatial resolution and 1 h temporal resolution during 60 years between 1962 and 2021. Spatial assessment of the annual and seasonal trends was first performed using the innovative trend analysis (ITA) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. To obtain more detailed information, innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), improved visualization of innovative trend analysis (IV-ITA), and star graph methods were applied to annual, seasonal, and monthly mean Pwave at 12 stations selected. The results allow us to identify an increasing trend above the 10% change rate with the innovative method and above the 95% confidence level with the Mann-Kendall test in mean wave power in the Levantine basin and the Libyan Sea at all timescales. The use of various innovative methods offered similar results in certain respects and complemented each other.Publication Geo-spatial multi-criteria evaluation of wave energy exploitation in a semi-enclosed sea(Elsevier, 2021-01-01) San, Murat; Akpınar, Adem; Bingölbalı, Bilal; Kankal, Murat; KANKAL, MURAT; 0000-0003-0897-4742; AAZ-6851-2020The present study aims to determine priority areas for installation of wave energy converters (WECs) in a semi-enclosed sea using a multi-criteria, spatial, decision-making analysis based on geographical information systems (GIS). The study also suggests a new methodology for determination of suitable areas for WECs taking into consideration different extreme wave conditions, intra-annual variation of wave conditions, and operational range of wave conditions by the WECs. A case study over a distance of 1140 km along the coast in the southwest Black Sea is presented. In the multi- criteria analysis, areas with environmental, economic, technical and social constraints are excluded. Ocean depth, distance to ports, shore, power line, and sub-station, wave climate, and sea-floor geology are all evaluated for their impact on the system implementation and weighted according to their relevance. Thus, the final suitability index (SI) map is produced and spatial statistical significance of the suitable areas is checked using hotspot analysis. Based on this, Kirklareli coastal area and the area between Igneada Cape and Kiyikoy village are determined as primary priority areas. The sustainability parameters with different weights proposed in this study do not differentiate priority areas but affect the SI scores. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Publication Investigation of the effect of building-based assessment on flood hazard evaluation(Hard, 2022-01-01) Kurt, Zeynep O.; Yüksek, Ömer; Kankal, Murat; KANKAL, MURAT; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0003-0897-4742; AAZ-6851-2020The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of building-based assessment on flood hazards. Degirmendere, which is one of the most important basins of the Eastern Black Sea Region of Turkey, was selected as the study area. Flood hazards for discharge values with different return periods of this region were found using; the damage percentages table recommended by the Huntington Civil Engineers Association (HCEA), the Van Eck and Kok depth-loss curves, and the equation obtained by Pistrika and Jonkman. The calculations were performed both for building-based and for the region-based and compared. Furthermore, the damage rates obtained for each building on a building-based were graded and shown on the map. It was determined that the damage on individual building-based estimation for Q1,000 calculated more than to the one on region-based 154% and 17% for the damage percentages table recommended by the HCEA, Van Eck and Kok depth-loss curves, respectively. Otherwise, it gave 11% less damage estimation for the equation obtained by Pistrika and Jonkman. Furthermore, it was concluded that the increase in damage from Q(50) to Q(100), from Q(100) to Q(500) , and from Q(500) to Q(1.000) was between 16%-30% according to building-based damage estimation.Publication Trend detection by innovative polygon trend analysis for winds and waves(Frontiers Media Sa, 2022-08-10) Akcay, Fatma; Bingölbali, Bilal; BİNGÖLBALİ, BİLAL; Akpınar, Adem; AKPINAR, ADEM; Kankal, Murat; KANKAL, MURAT; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/İnegöl Meslek Yüksekokulu.; 0000-0003-4496-5974; 0000-0002-9042-6851; 0000-0003-0897-4742; AAZ-6851-2020; AAC-6763-2019It is known that densely populated coastal areas may be adversely affected as a result of the climate change effects. In this respect, for coastal protection, utilization, and management it is critical to understand the changes in wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in coastal areas. Innovative approaches, which are one of the trend analysis methods used as an effective way to examine these changes, have started to be used very frequently in many fields in recent years, although not in coastal and marine engineering. The Innovative Polygon Trend Analysis (IPTA) method provides to observe the one-year behavior of the time series by representing the changes between consecutive months as well as determining the trends in each individual month. It is not also affected by constraints such as data length, distribution type or serial correlation. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to investigate whether using innovative trend methods compared to the traditional methods makes a difference in trends of the climatological variables. For this goal, trends of mean and maximum WS and SWH series for each month at 33 coastal locations in Black Sea coasts were evaluated. Wind and wave parameters WS and SWH were obtained from 42-year long-term wave simulations using Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model forced by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Monthly mean and maximum WS and SWH were calculated at all locations and then trend analyses using both traditional and innovative methods were performed. Low occurrence of trends were detected for mean SWH, maximum SWH, mean WS, and maximum WS according to the Mann-Kendall test in the studied months. The IPTA method detected more trends, such as the decreasing trend of the mean SWH at most locations in May, July and November December. The lowest (highest) values were seen in summer (winter), according to a one-year cycle on the IPTA template for all variables. According to both methods, most of the months showed a decreasing trend for the mean WS at some locations in the inner continental shelf of the southwestern and southeastern Black Sea. The IPTA method can capture most of the trends detected by the Mann-Kendall method, and more missed by the latter method.Publication Increasing trends in spectral peak energy and period in a semi-closed sea(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2023-02-13) Acar, Emine; Akpınar, Adem; AKPINAR, ADEM; Kankal, Murat; KANKAL, MURAT; Amarouche, Khalid; AMAROUCHE, KHALID; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0002-9042-6851; 0000-0003-0897-4742; 0000-0001-7983-4611; JTU-9268-2023; AAC-6763-2019; AAZ-6851-2020; AFR-7886-2022This study aims to investigate long-term trends in the Black Sea's spectral wave peak energy and periods. Improved Visualization of the Innovative Trend Analysis and the Mann-Kendal methods was applied to the maximum and mean spectral peak energies and peak periods between 1979 and 2020. Long-term spectral data are obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis and two spectral wave models, SWAN and WWIII. The innovative trend analysis method has the particularity to examine trends in higher and lower value categories. Studies of long-term changes in spectral wave characteristics are rare, and trends in spectral peak parameters are evaluated in this study for the first time in the Black Sea. It was detected that both spectral peak energies and peak periods tend to increase predominantly over most of the time scales. Furthermore, while the change rates for peak en-ergies do not exceed 40% annually and seasonally, change rates exceeding 100% are observed on a monthly basis. Besides, the change rates of the peak periods vary in the +/- 5% band and usually do not exceed 15%. Moreover, despite a few differences, trend analysis results obtained using SWAN and WWIII models were close to the global ERA5 results. The results may provide insight into the design and durable development of coastal and marine structures as well as the evaluation of wave climate change based on spectral wave data.Publication Annual trends of precipitation and temperature in the northwestern part of Turkey using innovative approaches: A holistic and partial study(Springer Basel Ag, 2023-07-03) San, Murat; Nacar, Sinan; Akçay, Fatma; Kankal, Murat; KANKAL, MURAT; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0003-0897-4742; AAZ-6851-2020Trend analysis benefits collecting and analyzing reliable data in climate change studies. In this context, long-term temperature and precipitation data analysis, two variables sensitive to climate change, is essential. This study aims to holistically and partially determine the annual trends of precipitation and temperature time series for 1970-2019 at nine selected stations in the Susurluk Basin, Turkey. The innovative trend significance test (ITST), innovative crossing trend analysis (ICTA) method, and Mann-Kendall (MK) test were used to determine holistic trends. Also, partial trends were determined using successive average methodology (SAM). For the precipitation variable, while an increasing trend was determined for the ITST, there was mostly no trend for the other methods. While a strong increasing trend was detected for the temperature according to the ITST and MK methods, no trend was observed in any station according to the ICTA method. According to the SAM results, the maximum trend durations for the peak and trough change points were 4.9 (10.3) and 5.3 (8.4) years, respectively, for precipitation (temperature). The strong temperature trends in the basin will likely continue, requiring precautions against extreme events such as drought.Publication Suspended sediment load prediction in rivers by using heuristic regression and hybrid artificial intelligence models(Yıldız Teknik Üniversitesi, 2020-06-01) Yılmaz, Banu; Aras, Egemen; Kankal, Murat; Nacar, Sinan; KANKAL, MURAT; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi/İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü.; 0000-0003-0897-4742; AAZ-6851-2020Accurate prediction of amount of sediment load in rivers is extremely important for river hydraulics. The solution of the problem has been become complicated since the explanation of hydraulic phenomenon between the flow and the sediment on the river is dependent many parameters. The usage of different regression methods and artificial intelligence techniques allows the development of predictions as the traditional methods do not give enough accurate results. In this study, data of the flow and suspended sediment load (SSL) obtained from Karsikoy Gauging Station, located on Coruh River in the north-eastern of Turkey, modelled with different regression methods (multiple regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines) and artificial neural network (ANN) (ANN-back propagation, ANN teaching-learning-based optimization algorithm and ANN-artificial bee colony). When the results were evaluated, it was seen that the models of ANN method were close to each other and gave better results than the regression models. It is concluded that these models of ANN method can be used successfully in estimating the SSL.Publication Prediction of suspended sediment loading by means of hybrid artificial intelligence approaches(Springer International Publishing Ag, 2019-12-01) Yılmaz, Banu; Aras, Egemen; Nacar, Sinan; Kankal, Murat; KANKAL, MURAT; Bursa Uludağ Üniversitesi/Mühendislik Fakültesi; 0000-0003-0897-4742; AAZ-6851-2020The main aim of the research is to use the artificial neural network (ANN) model with the artificial bee colony (ABC) and teaching-learning-based optimization (TLBO) algorithms for estimating suspended sediment loading. The stream flow per month and SSL data obtained from two stations, Inanli and Altinsu, in Coruh River Basin of Turkey were taken as precedent. While stream flow and previous SSL were used as input parameters, only SSL data were used as output parameters for all models. The successes of the ANN-ABC and ANN-TLBO models that were developed in the research were contrasted with performance of conventional ANN model trained by BP (back-propagation). In addition to these algorithms, linear regression method was applied and compared with others. Root-mean-square and mean absolute error were used as success assessing criteria for model accuracy. When the overall situation is evaluated according to errors of the testing datasets, it was found that ANN-ABC and ANN-TLBO algorithms are more outstanding than conventional ANN model trained by BP.