An investigation of the factors influencing external debt in emerging market economies

Abstract

External financing support plays a vital role in the economic development of emerging market economies (EMEs). However, the ineffective using of external resources can increase the debt burden and exacerbate macroeconomic instability and financial vulnerabilities. After the global financial crisis, growing debt accumulation with the debt-favored environment has raised discussions about whether external financing is a blessing or a curse for macro-financial stability. This paper explores the drivers of external debt in EMEs from 2005Q1 to 2020Q1. To this end, the effects of economic growth, inflation, exchange rate, trade openness, and domestic credit on external debt to gross domestic product are analyzed with panel cointegration and panel augmented mean group (AMG) estimator for eight EMEs. The panel cointegration findings show that a long-run relationship exists between the series. The panel AMG findings indicate that economic growth declines external debt. A rise in trade openness, inflation, and domestic credit accumulate foreign debt in the long-run, whereas the impact of the credit is barely statistically significant. Although the impact of the exchange rate is insignificant for the panel, it is statistically significant in the four countries. Country-specific results are largely consistent with the panel findings, but some differences exist across countries.